Iran in crosshairs as Syrian war winds down
As a resolution to the Syrian conflict grows closer, it is becoming clear that Iran is increasingly in the crosshairs of the Damascus regime's opponents and their backers.
A new wave of violence seems to be shaking the fragile truce in Syria. On March 19, opposition groups launched a surprise attack on Damascus in apparent coordination with a separate offensive in the countryside of Hama province. The escalation was not solely aimed at the Syrian regime, but also at the two international de facto "caretakers" of the Syrian crisis, Russia and Turkey.
According to an Arab diplomatic source in Beirut who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, the aim of the opposition attacks has been to remind all the parties involved in the Syrian war that no one is totally in control. In this regard, the source said, “The US and the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] states were completely absent for the past 6 months, from the US [presidential] election until the Saudi deputy [crown prince and apparent] heir, Mohammad bin Salman, visited Washington. The visit was probably the turning point.”
The source indicated that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies in Syria wanted to hang back after the election of Donald Trump to see whether the new US president had a clear strategy with respect to the war-torn country. The diplomat told Al-Monitor, “Many thought that Saudi Arabia had given up on the Syrian issue and that Turkey is the opposition’s caretaker. This is not the case. It was only temporary, to unify the [anti-regime] stance, and for sure, now is the right time to say there’s a new strategy.”
This new Saudi-US strategy is most likely geared toward influencing the attempts by Russia and Turkey to reach a broader and lasting cease-fire and forge a new political path under Ankara and Moscow's auspices. For the opposition, the new strategy likely raises the prospect of causing complications. For President Bashar al-Assad's regime, it might not directly affect the talks. In Iran's case, however, the strategy will likely boost its military’s position, which sees greater significance in advances on the battlefield than at the negotiating table, given its experiences of the past few years.
