Moscow has played a careful balancing act between regional rivals Iran and Israel, even managing its position within the Middle East during regional flash points such as the Syrian conflict. 

 

Amid renewed attacks between Tel Aviv and Tehran, Russia may be well positioned to mediate the conflict and act as a power broker between the regional rivals. However, the entanglement of this conflict with regional crises that span Gaza, Lebanon and Syria may jeopardize this careful balance. 

 

Russia and Iran have developed closer ties since 2015, cooperating on military operations such as those in Deir Ezzor, Syria, and on weapons transfers, including Iranian Shahed drones used in Ukraine. Increasing Russian interest and investment in Iranian security and energy sectors culminated in the signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty in January, strengthening their economic, political and military relations. However — even though Russia has received Iranian drones — it is unlikely that Moscow will militarily aid Tehran against Israel. 

 

Israel's new rounds of attacks on Iran may also limit Tehran's ability to continue with its shipments of loitering munitions to the Russian military, such as the Shahed drones, which have been used in Ukraine. However, Russia has been able to reproduce these and similar drones internally. It is unlikely that decreasing Iranian military support will impact weapons supplies for Russia's war in Ukraine.

 

As for Moscow's relations with Israel, Russia has maintained close political, operational and societal ties with Tel Aviv despite sharp condemnation of Israel's wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. This includes having turned a blind eye toward Israeli attacks on Iranian installations in Syria in previous years. Russia has also been responsive to Israeli qualms about weapons transfers to Iran. In a similar vein, Israel has maintained relations with both Russia and Ukraine in the wake of Russia's invasion of the latter, playing mediator shortly after the outbreak of the war.

 

The exchange of missiles between Israel and Iran certainly complicates Russia's position in the development of Iran's nuclear facilities. Only days before Israeli strikes on the Natanz nuclear site and other facilities, the Iranian government announced that Russia would fund the building of eight new nuclear reactors, which forms part of a previous deal. Half of these would be located at the Bushehr nuclear site partially built by Russia's Rosatom. This potential deal comes after significant Russian investment in Iranian nuclear plants since 2011. 

 

 

Since the latest escalation of attacks between Iran and Israel, Russian President Vladimir Putin has spoken with Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. 

 

The Russian president expressed to both leaders Moscow's readiness to help de-escalate the crisis. In his phone call with Netanyahu, Putin condemned the violence, asserting that the question of Iran's uranium enrichment could only be resolved through diplomacy and certainly not war. Russian envoy to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya expressed concern regarding Israel's "new irresponsible adventure," calling it an "unprovoked attack" that "is pushing the region toward a large-scale nuclear catastrophe" and "a gross violation of the UN Charter and international law." 

 

A Russian-mediated solution to the crisis — where international cooperation is essential — could revive negotiations with the United States over Iran’s nuclear enrichment. Moscow's involvement in Iran's nuclear energy industry has been coupled with its strong support for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, allowing for the observation of Iranian nuclear enrichment activity in return for lighter sanctions. 

 

President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in May 2018 during his first term, following meetings with Netanyahu in which alleged evidence was presented suggesting that Iran was not complying with the agreement’s terms — despite IAEA reports to the contrary. Having been a major proponent and signatory of the JCPOA, Moscow is uniquely positioned to rally the P5+1 — the original signatories of the JCPOA — to renew the deal. 

 

The recent attacks have scuppered the next round of US-Iranian nuclear talks set to take place on Sunday in Oman. Despite this, talks about a new nuclear deal have become ever more pressing for Washington. During and following an hour-long phone call with Putin on Saturday during which Putin offered to mediate the crisis, Trump announced that talks with Iran would go ahead. He stressed that Washington may seek to expedite negotiations due to the pressures on Iran imposed by Israeli strikes. With Moscow a strategic partner of Iran — something alternative mediators such as Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia do not have — Russian mediation may allay Tehran's concerns toward making a deal over the nuclear issue. 

 

While Russia has not entered the conflict militarily, Moscow has previously managed complex international, regional and domestic rivalries in the Middle East to broker agreements — albeit with limited success. This has largely been due to a pragmatic interests-based approach to foreign relations. As such, if Russia were to guarantee a nuclear deal, Washington and Tel Aviv might be incentivized to cooperate toward de-escalation. In effect, such an arrangement could help mitigate the resulting security and prisoner dilemma. A potential Russian solution to the crisis could include the conversion of highly enriched uranium into reactor fuel and the continued supervision and management of Iran's uranium enrichment program. This proposal was forwarded by the Kremlin only two days before the Israeli attacks on Iran.

 

 

Putin's phone call with Trump also revealed the Kremlin's gambit to turn the United States' attention away from Russia's war in Ukraine and forge a new path of cooperation with the US administration over the Middle East. As the strategic environment shifts, Putin may also be anticipating that the West will redirect its military aid and support away from Ukraine and toward Israel. However, European powers have become increasingly disaffected with Netanyahu's government, having recently considered sanctions against Israeli officials and trade. The G7 meetings, due to conclude on June 17 and during which sanctions on Russia are to be discussed, will demonstrate whether these attacks have turned the attention of the international community away from Ukraine.

 

Despite the ouster of its key Middle Eastern partner, the Assad regime, Russia has maintained a prominent position in the region. Its status as a P5 member, carefully balanced relations between regional rivals, and influence with Iran may position Moscow as a rare potential mediator for the conflict between Iran and Israel. However, since Israel's war on Gaza began, Moscow has issued increasingly harsher criticism of the Israeli government. 

 

Nonetheless, Russia is still rather uniquely positioned to mediate between these regional rivals, as Moscow has tended to forge interest-based rather than ideologically based relations with regional actors. Brokering peace, especially with an actor so closely supported by the United States, may boost Russia's image as a global player with significant influence in matters of international security. Furthermore, this conflict and a Russian hand in its resolution may also distract the international community from events in Ukraine. However, Moscow's success as a broker in this conflict depends on its ability to navigate the crisis hand-in-hand with Washington — arguably Israel's staunchest supporter.