Five reasons China is in no rush to end Iran war
Despite global economic disruptions, China may tolerate prolonged US involvement in Iran, as it could drain American resources and shift focus away from the Indo-Pacific.
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The Middle East has, once again, barged in to complicate US policy priorities in Asia as President Donald Trump postpones his long-awaited trip to China in order to manage the Iran war. The White House is also hoping that Beijing will help in pressuring Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz and make major concessions to bring an end to the war.
The problem for Trump, however, is that neither the war nor his visit present much urgency for China. Beijing has found ways to cushion the impact of US economic pressure, diversify its energy supplies and build up reserves, and despite short-term pains, it would benefit from a drawn‑out conflict that ties down US attention and resources.
After telling the Financial Times on Sunday that he “may delay” his trip to China originally scheduled for March 31-April 2, Trump did just that on Tuesday. Speaking from the White House, Trump said the trip will instead happen in “five or six weeks.”
“We’re resetting the meeting, and it looks like it’ll take place in about five weeks,” Trump said before giving a time frame of five or six weeks.
In the interview, Trump asked China to help with the Hormuz Strait standoff and demanded an answer before the summit’s original start date of March 31.
“We’d like to know before that,” he said.
But that answer never came, and China ignored the request by sticking to its usual talking point, calling for the “parties to immediately stop military operations, avoid further escalation of the tense situation and prevent regional turmoil from further impacting the global economy.”
In short, China is letting Trump know that neither ending the Iran war nor hosting him are urgent priorities, and it will not be bailing America out.
Here are five reasons China might be doing this:
1. China doesn’t mind a long American involvement in Iran. It would serve two purposes: drain US resources — with the daily cost of the war running into more than $1 billion — and distract from the Asia theater. As the war enters its fourth week, and even with the heavy beatings that the regime has taken, there are no signs that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will surrender, that Israel will halt its strikes or that the US can withdraw militarily.
2. While the closure of Hormuz, as we wrote last week, is very problematic for China as the world’s largest importer of crude oil through the strait, it is not a do‑or‑die situation. China, according to the New York Times, has gigantic oil reserves of around 1.3 billion barrels of crude, enough to last roughly four months. Beijing is also importing more energy from Russia and has continued to receive shipments through Hormuz, and Iran has actually increased its crude exports compared with pre‑crisis levels — much of it at a discount that Chinese refiners are happy to lock in.
3. China is not wed to this Iranian regime and is willing to gamble in the event of its collapse. Yes, it prefers that it stay in power, but as we have written in the past, it had good relations with Iran under the shah and could likely reach a working arrangement with whatever government emerges if political change comes.
4. The war offers China an opportunity to improve Gulf ties, especially given its role as mediator of the Saudi‑Iran deal in 2023 and its posture as an ostensibly impartial stakeholder. It is no surprise that its envoy, Zhai Jun, was received by senior officials in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and that senior UAE official Khaldoon Al Mubarak visited Beijing this week. Gulf states could lean on China to help secure understandings with Iran on oil exports or the protection of vital infrastructure.
5. China is stepping in on the humanitarian side. In an unusual move for a country that typically emphasizes noninterference and seldom leads with humanitarian assistance in Middle East crises, the Foreign Ministry announced aid to Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq, three key states affected by or directly hit in the context of Israel’s operations. This allows Beijing to present itself as a responsible actor and to build goodwill at relatively low cost.
Joyce’s take: While China did not start this war and does favor a return to stability in a key waterway and across its Gulf partnerships, it is in no rush to end it. A protracted conflict that harms US standing, keeps Washington preoccupied and opens diplomatic and commercial space for Beijing is something Chinese leaders can live with — as long as the fallout does not seriously derail their own growth or trigger a wider regional collapse.
